Ask the Slot Expert: Players frequently see what they want to see n671

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I was pleasantly surprised to see a trailer for the third installment in the Now You See Me franchise a few days ago. I had heard that a third film was in the works. Now I believe that it is real.

In the second film, the Four Horsemen, the magicians who are the heroes of the franchise, have to flee the scene of their latest sting when it falls apart. The details aren't important.

The Horsemen are always two steps ahead. They had an escape route in place. Go to the roof and jump into a construction debris chute that will take them to their escape vehicle.

Instead of finding themselves in their getaway vehicle, though, they wake up a couple of days later in a restaurant in Macau.

This being more Death in Paradise than David Blaine, we find out exactly how it was done, how the magicians ended up in Macau. A wizard did it. Harry Potter. Well, not Harry Potter but Daniel Radcliffe playing a character names Walter Mabry in this movie.

How did they end up in Macau?

There were two debris chutes on the roof. They jumped into Mabry's chute, which was tricked out to hypnotize them into unconsciousness as they fell down the chute. They slept through the flight to Macau and didn't wake up until they were in the restaurant.

Mabry tells them that they saw what they wanted to see when they were on the roof. They saw a chute and they jumped in it. His chute.

They didn't see the second chute that was about 20 feet away. Their chute. The one they should have jumped in.

Gamblers also sometimes see what they want to see and not the whole picture. They do this to have evidence to a theory they have.

An interesting theory I've seen tested deals with new money versus old money. I've seen players play for a while, cash out, and then immediately put the ticket back in the machine.

We all know that a machine will give you a few hits when you start playing it to suck you in. Then it turns cold and takes back what it gave you and the rest of your bankroll. Frequently putting in a new ticket fools the machine into thinking you're a new player that it should reward.

I frequently see a couple take new money/old money to a higher level. One of them periodically cashes out and then the husband redeems the ticket at a kiosk. They then take the cash and put it back into their machine.

There must be a new player because somebody put in cash, right?

I don't think these players see the evidence that goes contrary to their theories. How many times did their machines slowly eat away at the money they just put in without hitting anything that would bring them back to even let alone ahead?

And how about the times that their machines reward their buy-ins with ice-cold streaks and they have to feed their machines again a few minutes later? These machines aren't rewarding new money in these instances.

I noticed something puzzling when players refreshed the money in their machines. I've never seen anyone refresh their players card session. Isn't the machine going to be able to figure out that the new money is not coming from a new player?

In determining the outcome of a spin or hand, the program in the machine doesn't care whether you're using a player card or how long you've been playing on it. It doesn't care whether your credits came from cash money, a ticket, or an electronic transfer from your casino wallet.

The only thing the machine cares about is that you have enough credits to cover the bet you want to make.

These players don't see that there are two chutes on the roof. Other names for this behavior are confirmation bias and selective memory.

As Tom Petty so wisely observed, "You believe what you want to believe."

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